Apologies to my readers. I know stocks are boring and I'm beginning to sound like a greedy bastard. Unless I get requests for daily updates, I'm going to try to reduce the frequency of my stock updates. But who knows. Maybe you guys enjoy it, like reading about your favoriate baseball team in Sports Illustrated.

My account slipped about 1% today and I closed one of my positions after getting the signal to close. I had opened that positions last Tuesday and it had gone up by about 12%. After losing about 2% to commission, I made a very nice 10% gain on that position during the week that it was open. I'm probably going to open another position tomorrow.

The markets are closed for the day. Between now and when I looked at my stocks in the morning, my account went down a little and came back up closing at a gain of about 4% from yesterday. Not quite the 5% I saw this morning, but a very healthy gain nonetheless. I've probably been lucky these past two days, but if I can continue gains like this, I'll be set. Now, it seems like it's reasonably possible to recoup all my losses this week and end up in plus territory.

This is my routine. I wake up in the morning. Turn on my computer and look at stock charts for about 20 minutes. This would be in the middle of the trading day. I open positions at this time if I saw something I liked the night before. Then at lunch time (right before the markets close) I spend another 20 minutes looking at stock charts. I open positions at this time if I see that sometime I like developed during the day. Then, at night, I might look at some more charts, maybe not. I'm currently watching 17 stocks, and I have 6 open positions. I'd have more open if I could but my account is maxed out.

This morning when I woke up, my account was up over 5% from yesterday's closing. I was astonished. Most of this gain, however, was due to a single stock gapping in my favor. I've already recouped all of last weeks losses and then some. I just need to go up about another 3% and I'll have recoupped my losses from round one and then be in profit territory. Hopefully my account won't go down by today's close.

My portfolio went up about 2% today and I opened 2 new positions today making it 6 open positions. I'm about another 2% from recouping my losses (i.e. commission) from last week (I lost a little more than 1% on commission for my new new positions). I have 5 short positions and 1 long position. I'm starting to wonder if I have a bearish bias. I don't really think so, I think it's just coincidence based on the group of stocks I'm watching.

I was rummaging through the files on my old computer when getting it ready for my mom to use. I'd gotten this computer when I was a freshman in college, a 400 mHz Pentium II with 128 mb of ram. After I'd used it for about three years, my brother used it for about half a year before getting a new computer for himself. Apparently, it hadn't been reformatted for at least two and a half years since I found my old journal (which I wrote in for about 3 months during the summer two years ago) sitting around on the hard disk. It took me a while to guess the password I put on the file, but eventually I got it and I was able to read some stuff I wrote in 2000. It was just a couple of entries and I don't even remember writing it. Man, it's scary. Some things never change.

Commission. The bane of my trading existence. In three weeks, I've opened 10 positions and closed 6 at a total cost of approximately $160 in commission. Maybe I should start looking for a cheaper broker, not that Datek (now Ameritrade by merger) is all that expensive. Obviously, a few things need to change to reduce the effect of commission on my account. The most obvious thing is to trade less frequently. The 4 positions opened and closed in the week of round one was absolutely horrible. The 6 trades opened and 2 closed in the first week of round 2 (this past week) is a little better, especially considering that 1 position was opened unintentionally changing the sum to 5 positions opened intentionally and 1 closed. So fewer trades and longer term positions is a good way to reduce the effect of commission. Another way to reduce the effect of commissions is with fewer positions of bigger size. I don't think I'd do that. I had larger positions in round one and I didn't think it was a good idea. Less diversification, more risk, etc. My positions are already large enough for my comfort. Ideally, if commission costs were less, I'd have a greater variety of smaller positions. 5 open positions will max out my account as it is, and that's including margin. What does that mean? It means one position is a whopping 40% of my account! Not exactly comforting. Another way to reduce the effect of commission: invest in more volitile stocks. Essentially, investing in more volitile stocks is a sort of leverage. Obviously, there's more risk, but it allows me to get the effect of having larger positions while keeping some sembleance of diversity. And naturally it increases the potential for profit or loss. This is actually a direction I'm considering going. But not just yet. I'll wait to see how my positions turn out before deciding to avoid relatively stable stocks altogether. I wouldn't want to dive into riskier positions with a bad strategy. Man, I still feel like such an amateur. Anyhow ... hopefully in the coming week, I should be able to recoup the losses from last week (i.e. the cost of commission) and if I'm extremely lucky, even the losses from round 1 (wishful thinking) Recouping the losses from round 1 and the losses from last week would take about a 10% gain. Doing that is a week is very unlikely. but you never know. One more lesson I've learned. If you can only afford 5 positions, don't put 2 of them in the same industry. I have 4 open positions. 2 of them are in the same industry. On Friday that industry moved against me. So you know how it goes. It was just a small move and ended up having a relatively small effect on my portfolio, but I shudder to think what would've happened if it were a bigger move. Live and learn.

Hmm... I just had an interesting thought. If I had closed my stop after I closed my position rather than accidently get executed like I mentioned a few days ago, then I'd be up about a fraction of a percent for round 2 so far. One of these days, I'm going to stop making stupid mistakes like that.

Final thought: next week is a new week. Anything can happen.

Round 2 Update

Markets are closed for the week. I've opened 6 positions and closed 2 so I have 4 open positions. I've lost on both positions that I closed (one of them which was opened on accident as I mentioned yesterday). I'm down (barely) on one of my open positions and up on three. Actually, after accounting for commission, I'd be up on 2 and down on 2 positions. Overall, for round 2, I'm down just under 3% after accounting for commssion so far. Hmm... 3% loss in a week. That's better than the 9% I lost during round 1. However, round 2 isn't over yet and I still feel confident that I'll soon be up since my positions have been open less than 3 days and the time frame that I'm looking for is around 2-3 weeks. Also, commission accounts for more than 3% so if it weren't for that, I'd be up. I've changed my strategy from round 1. I've got smaller positions and wider stops. I don't expect my stops to get hit since I think I'd get the signal to close the postion before that happens. Most important, I have a well-defined strategy. Whether or not the strategy is a good one has yet to be seen. Ideally, I'd like to test it on historic data using a computer program, but I don't have historic data and I don't have a computer program. That's on my To Do list. New lessons: Cancel stop orders when closing positions. Watch out for slippage on low volume stocks. I really wish I had a larger account. Commission accounts for a large part of my profits (and losses).

Interview with Someone Like Me III

What's your ideal girlfriend?

I don't know. I'll know her when I see her. At least that's what I always say. But that's really a cop-out answer. The funny thing is that some girls think that it's cute and romantic or something like that. Frankly, I really think that I won't know her when I see her. You know what I mean? I'm just dense like that sometimes. Hopefully, she'll know me when she sees me so I won't have to worry about it too much. Maybe I'm just dreaming.

What characteristics do you look for in a girl, or rather a girlfriend?

Do you know why I give a cop-out answer? Because usually it's a girl that's asking and inevitably they end up comparing themselves against your standard and seeing how they measure up and even though they don't have ...... enough of my rambling. Hmm... what do I look for in a girl ... I'm a little reluctant to answer because I have a strong suspicion that my ideal girl will have none of characteristics I'm going to list and yet she's going to be the girl for me. I don't know how that's going to work but I can't wait to find out. Anyway, I look for the complete package. I'm not going to chase after a girl just cause she's gorgeous, or cause she has the most charming personality in the world. I look for a balance of qualities. Let me start with the least important characteristic I look for. Looks. I'm not going to deny that looks aren't important, because looks are important. There has to be some sort of physical attraction there for things to work. What's good looking should be pretty self-explanatory. I don't really have any quirky tastes or anything. However, I do tend to look more for asian girls, which I think is natural for an asian guy. Intelligence. It's pretty simple. I look for a girl to be able to hold an intelligent conversation. It's a plus if she has some sorts of ambitions and has solid hobbies. I want a girl who knows what up, and can keep up when I start to get technical. Personality. This is the most important but it's also the most vaque. It's the quality where it just clicks if it fits. And it's also not something that's easy to know. What exactly is a good personality? Well... some good qualities are ... caring, kind, humble, nice; funny; grounded, strong, and independant; romantic; not conceited, not spoiled; etc etc etc. It would be easy to go to a thesaurus and spit out adjectives but for the most part it really doesn't mean anything. Each person looks for different things and it can't really be explained to someone else. A matching personality goes beyond words, and it's what separates the significant other from soulmate. Maybe you can interpret that as another cop-out. It's easier to say that a good personality is indescribable rather than to actually try to describe it. Yeah .... it's a cop-out.

What characterstics do you look for in a car?

Thank you! An easy question. I look for a car engineered by people who love to drive for people who love to drive. Good power. Light weight. Responsive handling and good feedback. Neutral handling at the limit. Tossable. Tuneable. Rear wheel drive. Solid chassis. Stiff suspension. I don't want to feel isolated in the car. I want to feel that the car is an extension of my body.

so ... Mary (a highschool friend of mine) mentioned me in her blog and posted two of my poems from highschool. So ... while poetry was on my mind, I decided to post something Josh Griffin (a mudd grad of my year) had in his senior page in the yearbook. I thought it was clever. I don't know whether or not he wrote it, but it does sound like something he'd write, so I think he did. But ... I'm sure you won't find it as clever if you don't know C.

#ifndef CS_MAJOR

#define CS_MAJOR

int isWisdom2() {

  do{

      // Nothing else

      // ..satisfies

    willOfGod();

  }while(breathing == true)



  exit(toHeaven);

}

I learned a new lesson today. After you close a position, DON'T FORGET TO CANCEL THE STOPS! A few days ago, I opened a short position. The next day I closed it (what some authors call a whipsaw). This morning, when I looked at my account, I had a long position in the same company and I was thinking, I don't remember that being there yesterday! It turns out that my stop was executed. Dang it. Oh well... I wouldn't have made this trade on my own, but it's moved a couple of cents in my favor. Not enough to cover commission, but rather than get rid of it right away, I think I'll hold it until I get a sell signal. Or if I find a better trade and I need to free up the money.

Interview with Somone Like Me, II

Since this is the second in a series, you should probably read the last post before reading this one. Just thought you might like to know.

I noticed you've been interested in stock trading lately. What do you think about stock trading.

Hmm... Short-term stock trading, like I'm trying to do, is gambling. I'd never deny that. It's like betting on horses at the racetrack, or betting on sports or betting on the roulette wheel at Vegas. Actually, I'd say it's more like poker or blackjack. I say it's gambling because there's potential to win money, and there's potential to lose money. You're betting that a stock is going to go up or down and for the most part, you really have no idea what it's going to do. It's basically random. It's gambling because you're betting on an uncertain outcome, so you really don't have an idea whether this bet is going to make you money or lose you money. Realistically speaking, it's probably going to lose you money because like the poker table, there's always a rake. The market makers take a bit of money off the table in the form of slippage, and the brokerage firms take money off the table in the form of commission. That's the rake, so speaking entirely on those terms, more money is lost than won on trading. Furthermore, I'd say that the vast majority of traders lose money trading beyond simply slippage and commission. There's other factors working against them. Human nature. Fear and greed. The need to be right. Basically it's human nature to lose money in any sort of gambling, even in a zero sum game. People let their emotions get the better of them causing them to make stupid decisions. For example, if a stock moves in their favor, people will be more likely to take their profits rather than hold on to position on the chance that the trend would continue. But on the other hand, if the stock moves against them, people will be more likely to hold on to the losing stock hoping the direction will change rather than cut their loses. That also goes into the need to be right. People naturally want to be right more often than not, so they'll try to make it so that they have more winning positions than losing ones, even if it means having huge losses and tiny profits. Then there's impatience and the excitement intrinsic to gambling. People will enter trades for excitement of gambling, but not because the probabilities look right. People will tend to take bigger risks than they can afford, and people will avoid figuring out exactly how much risk they can afford.

So if there's so many factors against the average trader, why do you trade? What makes you think you can do better than most of the traders out there who lose money?

I say trading is like poker because most people lose money, and their losses support the profits of the few people who are geniunely good at the game. I'm talking about the kind of people that can walk up to the poker table and consistently take away good profits. There are traders out there who can make a living off of it because they understand that trading is a probabilities game, like poker, and the don't let emotions get in the way of making sound decisions. So there are people out there that can consistently make profits in this game. And I think I have the emotional and mental constition that it takes to do that. I rarely let my emotions drive me and I'm constantly on the lookout for mental and emotional biases I might have that might hamper me. I also have the patience to study the subject and persistence not to get discouraged when things don't quite work my way.

You know that trading is a risky business and lots of people have lost everything doing it.

I am fully aware of that fact. By nature I'm not a gambler and if things really turn out badly, I think my self-preservation instincts will prevent me from digging my own grave. (damn. I just saw a mosquito whiz by my head. I bet I'm going to wake up with some mosquito bites.) Anyhow, I'm pretty tired now and I should get to bed.

One more question. What do you plan to get out of stock trading?

I'd like to make a living from it. You know, be able to free up some time for other things I enjoy. The thing about working at a normal job is that you only get paid for the time that you work. If you want to get paid more, you work harder. That's not exactly the kind of life I want for myself. Ideally, I'd like to be able to get paid more for working less. Stocks have the potential to do that. I doesn't really require all that much more work to manage a couple hundred thousand dollar than it takes to manage one thousand dollars. Realistically you should be more careful when you're managing more money, but your profits or limited only by your skill in trading, and your capital, not by how many hours you're willing to work. So there is the potential there to make more money with less work. Of course there's a steep learning curve ... but I think I'll be able to manage.

All right. Thanks for your time, and good luck with your trading.

---

Interview with Someone Like Me

I said I'd give this another go tomorrow, but as I was preparing for bed, I had an idea.

As it should be clear from the title, I don't write about myself. I write about another person who happens to be like me. So (at the risk of sounding insane), I decided to have an interview with this guy.

How're you doing?

Not bad. Work is getting better. My cold is getting better. Besides that, it's pretty much the same ole. You know.

How do you like work?

Are you asking about the job I have now, or work in general?

Both.

Well, my work isn't too bad. It was kinda unbearable at first, when I was just learning the ropes, but it's gotten better. It's gotten easier as I learned the stuff I was supposed to program, and I've gotten used to programming for 8 hours a day. But all in all, it's pretty boring. You really got to have the patience to do computer programming for a living. For example, debugging can be pretty draining. Especially if it's a bug you didn't write. Work in general? What can I say? Work sucks.

If you weren't working, what would you be doing?

You know, I really don't know. Like if I were to win the lotto tomorrow and didn't have to go to work, I really don't know what I'd do. It would probably be pretty boring. I really don't know. It's kinda ironic though because I'm trying to retire as early as I can.

What do you plan on doing after you retire?

The thing for me is not so much that I don't want to work. It's that I want to not have to work. What I want is freedom. Whenever people ask me that, I always say, 'I'll know when I get there.' And for the most part that's true. If I feel like working, then maybe I'll work, but I want to do it because I enjoy it, not because I need the money. But actually, what I think I'd like to do is go to grad school. I think it'd be cool to get an advanced degree, and I've always liked learning. Or maybe I'll join the peace corp or go teach English in a foreign country or become a pastor or something like that. Maybe I'll just veg ant home and write for the heck of it.

Is money that important for you?

As a means to freedom, yes. Beyond that, not really. I'm actually pretty sloppy with my finances so I think it would be nice not to have to worry about whether or not I can afford something before I decide to buy it. But I'm not exactly spoiled when it comes to spending. Actually, I guess money is also important as a scorecard. I guess I sort of look at the "real world" as kind of a game like Monopoly. Money is a way to keep score. But now that I think about it, that's kinda ridiculous. I just don't want to have to work.

So is that your idea of the good life? Not having to work?

That's part of it. Of course there's no point in having all the freedom in the world if there's no one to enjoy it with. I'd also say that having close family, close friends, and close spouse (or soulmate if you want to call it that) are also important to the "good life." Also having a good relationship with yourself and with God. Actually, I think the "good life" starts with having a good relationship with yourself. And I mean an honest relationship with yourself. You know, you should be clear about your hopes and desires. You should know your shortcomings and be comfortable with yourself. Hmm... that's starting to sound different from what I mean. I'm not talking about self-esteem here. I'm talking more about contentment... It's hard to explain.

Would you say you have a good relationship with yourself?

What do you think? Actually, I don't really think you understand me. I guess 'relationship' was a bad word, cause it's not really a relationship. 'Understanding' would probably be a better word. And I'd like to think I understand myself. I think I know what makes me tick for the most part.

Ok then. What makes you tick?

Umm... I don't know. I guess for the most part I just try to make it through the day. Just make it to tomorrow hoping that tomorrow will be better than today.

What do you think are some of your shortcomings and strengths?

Shortcomings? Man ... I think I got more than my share. I think the biggest one is that I'm timid. Yeah ... maybe that's kinda hard to believe, but I just find it kinda hard to express myself sometimes. I think another one of my shortcomings may be that I think too much. Like I'm thinking "what the heck am I doing talking to you?" But thinking too much may also be one of my strengths. For one, it helps me to understand myself and the things around me. Other strengths? I'm smart, good looking, athletic and buff. Nah, just kidding. Obviously I'm none of the above. I'd like to think one of my strengths is that I'm patient and persistent. But that might just be some wishful thinking. I dunno. Next question.

I think you should get some rest. We can continue this interview later.

Ok. Sounds good to me.

Post Teenage Angst

What the heck am I doing here?

I'm sitting here staring at what amounts to a blank canvas wringing my mind for ideas to paint some sort of picture for the few devoted readers I have. Actually, I do this for myself but it's still a nice feeling to think that maybe out of the 6 billion or so people in this world, someone out that cares that there's a new post today. Maybe I'm just dreaming. There's probably more blogs out there than there are readers. But it's good to dream.

Maybe I shouldn't try to wring my mind for ideas. It puts me in a reflective sort of mood that somehow always succeeds in depressing me. Maybe that's why a lot of the things I write here is pretty depressing. A lot of the stuff I write here is also pretty dang bad, speaking from a literary perspective.

I never really fancied myself much of a writer. Who am I kidding? I still don't. It looks like this is going to be another one of those posts that's going to be just plain bad. Maybe I shouldn't publish this one. Maybe. What the heck, I've already wrote this much.

I think I'll give this another go tomorrow. I really gotta find something better to do with my life.

round 2 begins today. that is all.

The Invisible Sam

(hey look, a title!)

Finally about 5 months after graduation, I received the 2002 Harvey Mudd yearbook in the mail. 232 pages of hardcover glory titled "Revenge of the Mudders." There's one picture of me. It's on page 38. It's my mugshot.

4 years at Mudd. About 180 students in my graduating class. 1 photo of me. It's a mugshot. All you could really say about me by flipping through the yearbook is, "Umm... I think he went to school there." Yup, that basically sums up my college experience.

Lots of people at Mudd had nicknames. It was a way of remembering people. I think that if more people knew me, they probably would've given me a witty nickname about how nobody knew me and how I kept to myself and never said anything.

What a tremendously wasted opportunity. I spent 4 years at mudd all I got was a stinkin degree.

Sigh, now I'm getting all nostalgic about the college experience I never had. Or is that just bitterness? I can't tell.

The fever is going away and my head is clearing up, but I'm still coughing up phlegm and my nose still runs. My stomach still feels like crap (no pun intended) and my room smells like Raid.

Yesterday in my office on the third floor, as I was sitting and working, a guy from the fourth floor comes in and exclaims, "What's that smell? It smells like a men's restroom in here!" I didn't really notice the smell at the time, and I don't think many other people did. But sure enough, it smelled pretty bad. One of my coworkers commented that it's like boiling frogs live frogs. None of us really noticed the smell since it came on slowly, but when someone from outside came in, the smell blew him away. He covered his nose the whole time he was in our office. After we noticed the smell, we asked some questions and found out that our air conditioner was being worked on, and the repair guy spilled something in the air conditioner room and used some sort of solvent to clean it up and the fumes were wafting through our air conditioning system. Dang, he must've used some industrial strength cleaner. The smell was a hundred times stronger than Pine Sol, but without the pine fresh scent. I swear, it could've been pure acid or something. Anyhow, the smell persisted for a few hours and I think it would be safe to say that most of the people in my office got at least a little high off the fumes. I know I did. Of course, my high was somewhat aggravated by my fever.

About my fever ... I was feeling fine until it was getting close to the end of the work day after I'd been staring at the monitor for about 8 hours. Then my head starting spinning again. But that's pretty normal. Spending that much time staring at a monitor and programming is bound to screw with your head.

At today's closing prices, I would have been up 14.8% if I had not closed any of my positions. And 3 of my 4 positions would be winning overall and all 4 of my positions would be better off now than when I closed them. Live and learn, eh?

Dang, I hate being sick. I really hate it. Coughing and having a runny nose and hacking up phlegm is bad enough. But I just can't stand the fever. I don't mind being warm. I mind the cloudy head; not being able to think. I hate being slow. When I'm sick is one of the few times you'll find me moody and irritable. Sigh. I should take some Nyquil to calm my nerves. Speaking of Nyquil, I have a funny story about Nyquil, but it's not for tonight. Doesn't really matter though, I'm sure half my readers know the story anyway since they were there when it happened.

Yesss..... Nyquil.....

Here's an interesting and revealing fact. If I had no stops and all of my positions were still open, my account would be up 11.4% rather than down 9%. I think this means that I was pretty good at picking my stocks but horrible at picking my stops (too tight). Of course ... looser stops would mean I need to develop a better exit strategy.

Funny ...

Today my last open position got stopped out (at a healthy gain overall, thankfully, but a loss since yesterday) and I'm down about 9%. End of round 1. Time to step back and rethink the way that I'm approaching this.

Lessons learned:

Have smaller positions with wider stops.

Look for longer term positions.

Look for exceptional opportunities.

Don't try to predict reversals in trends before they happen.

Don't mistake day-to-day volitility for reversals in trends.

Be more clear about the signals I'm looking for.

For round 2, I plan on picking between 10-20 stocks to stalk. I'd pay attention to the daily charts for these stocks and open positions only when I think I see an exceptional opportunity. Again, smaller positions, wider stops, longer term. In the meantime, I'm behind in my studying. I'm still the amateur that the pros like to prey on.

Incidentally, last night I ate at a chinese restaurant. My fortune read, "You have an important new business development shaping up." Do you believe in fate? or luck? or chance?

The markets are closed for today I've been in the markets for exactly one week now (I opened my first position last tuesday). I opened 4 position and 3 of them got stopped out at a loss and I'm down about 2% since I started (after accounting for round-trip commission, of course). Two positions got stopped out the day after I opened them. My butt was saved only by the fact that my one winning position is up a remarkable 31% since I bought it last tuesday and I added to that position as it was going up. My timing on that stock was extremely lucky, and I probably shouldn't expect things like that to happen too often. Unfortunately, a I have about 6.75% of my equity at risk in that one position and it accounts for just over 90% of my equity (the rest being cash). That's a little frightening considering I'd be down nearly 9% if I get stopped out tomorrow. So ... I'm almost tempted to close my position now and spend some time rethinking my strategy (1 winning position out of 4 isn't very good). But, this stock has been zooming upward for the past few days and there's no reason to believe it'll stop (It still has another couple points to go before it hits resistance). I have a pretty tight stop on it (that still risks being triggered by daily volitility) which should protect most of my profits on that stock, but the fact that it's so much of my portfolio is reason enough to be nervous.

About my stops ...

I've had extremely tight stops on all of my positions, and the fact that 2 positions got stopped out the very next day suggests that my stops might have been too tight. Either the stock has to move in my favor immediately, or risk getting stopped out by day to day volitility. At this point, it's too early to say whether my stops saved me from a reversal in the trend (translating into a bigger loss) or simply killed some potential profits. I'll have to keep watching how my positions would've done had my stops not been triggered.

In any case, I have one order in mind waiting to be entered if the the stocks moves as I predict over the next few days, but besides that, I should probably not open any new positions for a few days and spend more time reading the trading books I have waiting for me.

I just thought I'd mention that commission is taking a big toll on me. I should be more careful about the trades I make and look for longer term positions just to avoid commission.

Once again, it's all a numbers game, and I love it.

On another note, I caught my brother's cold this weekend. So I left work early today to rest and recover. I got myself some cold medicine and hopefully I'll be feeling better tomorrow.

I know a financial consultant at my church. I asked her some questions about investing and she warns me against short term trading and trying to predict the markets like I'm trying to do, reminding me that lots of people have lost lots of money trying to do exactly that. Naturally, the only reason I can think of that I'll end up making money instead of losing money like all these people did, is that I'm smarter than them. After she decided that I wouldn't take her advice anyway (I imagine she's talked to a number of people just like me in her profession), she asked me a different question. "Is it money that you can afford to lose?" And it is. I'd be very sad to lose the money that I'm playing with, but I don't need it to pay bills or anything like that. And actually, it's not too unreasonable to expect that I'll lose everything I have invested. Some of the authors I've read admit that they've lost everything several times before they were able to make consistent profits. Interestingly, one of the authors I've read states that the number one goal of any stock trader should be to be trading 20 years from now. By that he means that the trader should trade so that he won't be easily wiped out, and by doing everything he can to reduce risk (which means avoiding risky trades) and increase the probability of success (i.e. expectancy). I say it again, it's all a numbers game.

In any case, I'm still studying technical analysis and I've found myself rereading chapters of trading books. I don't remember the last time I reread anything. Also, I found that on Yahoo you can get the historical stock prices on stocks as a spreadsheet. That's very important for me since now I have historical stock data that I can test my techniques on. I've already started taking that data, plugging them into excel, plugging in the formula for various technical indicators and drawing my own charts. One thing that I've realized is that excel draws very ugly charts. I wonder if I can make the charts look more like stock charts.

Please excuse me for writing about stocks which I know no one in their right mind finds interesting. Basically, the reason I do this is to keep myself accountable. If I start making stupid trades and lose all of my money, all of you will be able to say, "I told you so."

The markets just closed for the week and my account is up about 2% after accounting for round-trip commission. I opened up another position which has some of the effect of cancelling my second position. Same industry, same stock pattern, but my positions are in opposite directions. I realized that after I made the trade. That's not entirely the smartest thing to do. However, I expect the stock to pretty much continue to follow each other. One of those positions will get stopped out and hopefully the other will continue to make enough profit to cover the loss, and then some. Also, I began to realize that my latest two trades were based on first impressions. I should've spent more time watching the stocks (for a few days perhaps) before making the trade. One thing for sure, I don't have a problem with pulling the trigger.

A lot of guys seem to think women are hard to understand.

I don't think so. In fact, I fancy myself an expert. You ain't met a guy that understands women like I do. I couldn't tell you how a particular woman was thinking at any given moment, but I'd be able to tell what she'd be thinking a minute from now. Oh yeah. Let me tell you, you don't need to know what a woman is thinking when you can manipulate her thoughts like I can. What can I say? I'm a natural. I don't even have to think about it. My natural charm does all the work.

Just give me one minute with any woman. That's all it takes. I can make any woman detest me, distrust me, angry with me, frustrated with me, disgusted at me, horrified at me. I can make her leer me and jeer me. I can make her run and hide and never want to see me. I can make her avoid me with a passion. I can make her scream, yell and shout. I can make her cry. I know all the wrong buttons to push and I can push all of them before you can blink. I can say all the wrong things before you can tell me to stop. Yup, I got a way with women.

You say you got girl problems? No problem!!! One lesson from me and all your girl problems will go away. Just like that.

What? You say that you want to learn how to get a girl to like you? You must be in the wrong class, cause I ain't got a clue.

Here's a totally random, completely unrelated question. Are insecurities really insecurities if you aren't insecure about them? *shrug* Just a random thought.

The markets closed about half an hour ago and my position did extremely well today. I'm up a couple of dollars, and after accounting for commission, I'm still up a couple of dollars. :-D I also opened a second position today a few minutes before the close of trading. The stock moved against me a couple of cents in the few minutes before close, but wasn't anything I'd worry about. However, I feel that my stop might be a bit too tight on this second position, yet I'm can't bring myself to loosen it since that would put more money at risk. Having a smaller position would also have been a choice, but again, my position is still small enough that the cost of commission is still a serious concern.

I have to keep reminding myself that this game is all about probabilities. The best strategies don't make money on every single trade. And yet, I badly want to win on my first few trades.

It's been one day and I'm down a couple of bucks on my one position at the close of today's trading day. I'm down a couple more bucks after accounting for commission. It's a little discouraging, but fortunately the stock is slightly up on the daily chart and the pattern still looks promising. It just happened to close near the low of the day. However, now I'm beginning to think that I maybe should've watched the stock a little longer and waited for the technical indicators to look better. I have about 6.5% of my equity at risk on this one position based on my stop-loss order and the upside if the pattern holds (about 20% of my equity) is lot bigger than the downside if the pattern breaks down, so the expectancy seems to be good. 6.5% of my equity at risk is a little worse than I'd prefer (ideally I'd like to have about 2% risked on any one position) but that's the cost of working with a small account, lest I be killed on commission by working with miniscule positions. All that stuff I've read about trading psychology is starting to come into focus now that I have an open position. Hopefully, tomorrow will be a better day for this stock (though I really shouldn't be saying that since I'm working on a slightly longer timeframe than a few days). I just hope I don't get stopped out on the third day my first position is open.

"Don't be hasty, prosperity will knock on your door soon."

Thinking about stocks has distracted me for a while, but after I started writing in this thing again a few days ago, I got back into my old habit of reflecting. And I realized that there really isn't much else going on in my life. Nothing interesting or exciting. No adventures or misadventures. My life has become pretty dang boooring. So this is the "real" world eh? It's everything I expected, but somehow I hoped it would be more exciting. That's nothing new. I'm always hoping for something bigger an better.

I wonder what it means when I write more about what goes on in my head than what goes on in my life.

I just opened my first real live stock position. Ooh! My fingers tingle with excitement.

My initial deposit was credited to my Datek account today, and I got it set up for trading on margin. Now I'm just a couple click away from blowing my entire life savings on Wall Street, the other Las Vegas. Oh what a wonderful feeling. Fortunately, my entire life savings don't amount to much more than lunch money.

Almost ironically, last Friday (the day after I had created the Datek account), we had Chinese food at work for lunch. I had a fortune cookie for dessert and my fortune read, "Don't be hasty, prosperity will knock on your door soon." This morning, I pulled on a pair of pants and found the fortune in the pocket. "Don't be hasty, prosperity will knock on your door soon." Then I go to work and find that my Datek account is ready for trading. It seems to me like the gods of the fortune cookies are trying to say something. "Don't be too hasty." Maybe I'm trying to dive into trading too fast? *shrug* I think I'll just ignore that part and believe the rest. :)

Incidentally, my lucky numbers on the fortune were 04, 08, 15, 36, 39, 41. I wonder if those mean anything. Hmm... the 'oh' in 04 and 08 sound kinda ominous, don't you think? ooh... *shiver*

Up until I about the time I was a freshman in college, I was something of a social dunce.

There wasn't a social grace in my body. I was tactless, rude, and impolite. I could be harshly sarcastic. I didn't do things like holding the door for people, or saying "bless you" when someone sneezes or random things like that. But that wasn't the worst of it. I think my worst habit was bringing up subjects other people would rather forget or not think about or talk about. Furthermore, I was unperceptive to the extreme which exacerbated my lack of tact. A love affair could be happening before my very eyes and I wouldn't have a clue. It's not that I was mean, far from it, actually. I guess I just never learned the usual lessons about common courtesy. No, that's not true... I learned the lessons in the sense that a students learns American history, but also like a student who learns American history, I didn't give it a second thought. Geniuses don't let themselves get bogged down by petty things like social grace, or at least I didn't. I was probably pretty close to fitting the Steve Urkel stereotype, except without painful unrequited love. (Lucky me)

Anyway, from about the time I was a senior in high school into my first year of college, my closer friends began to complain about my tactless habits, suggesting that the habits indicated a lack of common sense, and took upon themselves the task of "converting" me. I recall that some friends said that I had no "noonchi." Noonchi? At first I thought it was Korean for eye-crud. I looked it up, and I think the translation from Korean came out to something like 'perceptiveness.'

I let that sink in for a while and made it a point to watch people and social situations more carefully. Over the years and through the benefit of the college experience I picked up a few socials skills to survive in a social world, and I've become somewhat proficient at reading people and situations (though I've also learned to keep my mouth shut about that realizing that most people don't like to have their character traits pointed out to them). No, I haven't become a perfectly amicable Casanova (though it would've been nice), I become more of a psychiatrist or psychologist, just relaxing in my comfort zone watching the world go by while trying to catch the undercurrents and hidden emotions. Heck, sometimes some people actually ask me for advice about people stuff!

Despite all that, in some sense I really haven't changed who I am. I'm not as harsh or tactless as I used to be, but I still say what's on my mind. I'm a little more polite, and I fare slightly better in social situations than I used to, but I still play the role of the shy guy around poeple I don't know... and even people I do. Sometimes I can read people, though probably not any better than the next guy. I just watch more carefully. In the end, you might say I learned these lessons like a student of American history. I usually don't give it a second thought.... Unless somebody asks.

Today, at the Korean service of Downey First Church, I was baptized. My one comment is that it would be nice to understand the blessing when I'm being blessed.

For those of you that may be wondering whats been happening to my car (i.e. no one), I installed new front brake rotors and bled the brakes about two week ago. I used factory Nissan brake rotors though I could've gotten nicer cross drilled ones or something, but I decided it wasn't worth the extra money. In any case, the brakes feel better now. There's no more of that grinding sensation which I think was due to warped rotors, and the pedal feel is much more confidence-inspiring due to the bleeding of the brakes. However ... I still have a pretty disconcerting wheel-shimmy at about 70 mph and during fairly hard cornering. I'm trying to decide what to do about that. I should probably take it into a mechanic and ask for advice, but I've been too lazy to do that. I'm expecting I'll need new ball joints or tie rod ends or perhaps new bushings or whatnot. Also, my tires have been slowly leaking air since I got new tires a few months ago at Costco. A few weeks ago, I took my car back to them for them to take a look, and they said that my wheels were corroding around the rim so that the tire can't make an airtight seal. Sollution? Either take them to a wheel repair shop and get them repaired, or get new wheels. I prefer the new wheels option, though it's definitely going to cost significantly more. I was planning to get new wheels eventually anyway, and this just makes it a higher priority ... as soon as I get that wheel shimmy fixed and scrounge up an extra grand or so, which probably isn't going to happen any time soon. I'll just have to live with stopping by the air pump everytime I get gas for a while. I'm actually looking to get the Kosei K-1 Racing wheels because they're light and relatively cheap, though not exactly "pretty" which is fine by me. Size 17x7.5 matched with 225-45r17 tires.

Also, either my expectations have gone up, or my engine is slowly rotting away inside the engine bay. It's seems to be getting weaker. Maybe I've just gotten too good at keeping the rear wheels planted, or maybe I've just gotten too used to it. I recall that it seemed a lot more powerful when i got the car about a year ago, but I imagine most of that was due to having come from a minivan. I don't know how well the previous owner took care of the engine, but with more than 120k miles on the odometer, I imagine it's about time to get it serviced. But, I'm not going to. By the time the engine is on its last legs, hopefully I'll have saved enough for a brand spanking new (used) engine straight from Japan. I speak of none other than the SR20DET, which is what this car should've had in the first place. Estimated cost: approximately $5 grand (including labor) give or take, depending whether or not I want certain aftermarket parts. Estimated time of arrival: Oh ... maybe a year or two; I'm not exactly going to find $5 grand in my couch cushions.

So here's how the future looks for my car: Stage 1, Ball joint and tie-rod ends from Moog and polyurethane bushings from Whiteline to get rid of the wheel-shimmy and suspension slop (expecting between $500 - $1000 for parts and labor). Stage 2, wheels and tires (expecting $1100 - $1500). Stage 3, Eibach pro-kit springs, Koni sport shocks for the rear (to match my front Koni shocks), and Whiteline front and rear sway bars (expecting $700). Stage 4, SR20DET with manual tranny, high-flow cat, exhaust, limited slip differential, etc. (expecting $5000 - $7000+). Stage 5, front (and maybe rear brakes) from 300zx twin turbo, and braided stainless steel brake lines (expecting $2000 or so). Possible stage 5.5, front and rear ladder bars, and a rear cross bar from Do-Luck (expectring $1000 or so). I'll probably throw in a new radio and speakers somewhere along the line, and maybe a new paint job. I have fantasies of coil-overs and adjustable suspension pieces with heim joints and expensive Brembo brakes and all that stuff, but that's probably beyond the scope of this project ... for now.

Yesterday, I opened an account at Datek Online Financial Services, LLC and mailed them my initial deposit check. I should be able to trade as soon as they get my check and clear it. In the meantime, I'm continuing to read more stock trading books, and I'll be paper trading. Wish me luck.

In other news ...

It kinda funny at my office during lunch time. Our company provides lunch everday; it's usually catered. Sometimes we get Chinese food, or subway, or pasta, or sandwiches, or Hawaiian food, etc. So when the food arrives downstairs when we eat, we get something of a lunch bell over the intercom. The secretary jush pushes all the keys on the phone in sequence and we know that lunch is here. So when we hear that noise, all of the developers I work with sign out, jump up, and run out the door trying to be the first to dig into the food. However, whenever we get there, the salespeople are always already down there eating. We decided that someone must be tipping them off, and a few days later, decided that the message over the intercom a few minutes before the lunch bell saying "Salespeople to the first floor" must be the prelunchbell lunch bell. So we've started using that message as our lunch bell and we've been able to get there around the same time as the sales people, before the rest of the company.

Yeah, it's kinda funny... but not really.

Congratulations go out to Steve who made his first sale yesterday.